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Each model at each forecast day
By forecast day
Daily check: observed against forecast
Observed cells are the average of the gauges in each 0.25° cell; pale grey cells had gauges and under 1 mm.
Airports: MSLP and wind
Rain. Observed: 24-hour totals to 08:30 IST from the MasRainman rain-report gauges (TN-SMART,
Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana), averaged onto 0.25° cells. Karnataka's totals come from
the last live check of the day, so rain in the final hours before 08:30 can be missing. Forecast Day 1 of a 00 UTC run covers 05:30 to 05:30 IST, so 21 of the
24 hours overlap. Only cells with gauges are scored.
Skill is the Equitable Threat Score, as used by IMD thresholds 2.5, 15.6 and 64.5 mm: 1 is perfect, 0 no better than chance. Near-miss skill is the Fractions Skill Score, which gives credit for rain placed close to where it fell. Error is RMSE, bias is forecast minus observed.
MSLP and wind. Observed: airport reports (METAR) at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC, compared with the forecast interpolated to the airport. METAR QNH matches MSLP near sea level, so airports above about 300 m (Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Coimbatore) are left out of the overall MSLP scores and marked ▲ in the table. Airport winds are local, so a model's grid-cell wind is expected to differ somewhat.
Scores from a few days swing a lot and mean little; read them with the day count shown.
Skill is the Equitable Threat Score, as used by IMD thresholds 2.5, 15.6 and 64.5 mm: 1 is perfect, 0 no better than chance. Near-miss skill is the Fractions Skill Score, which gives credit for rain placed close to where it fell. Error is RMSE, bias is forecast minus observed.
MSLP and wind. Observed: airport reports (METAR) at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC, compared with the forecast interpolated to the airport. METAR QNH matches MSLP near sea level, so airports above about 300 m (Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Coimbatore) are left out of the overall MSLP scores and marked ▲ in the table. Airport winds are local, so a model's grid-cell wind is expected to differ somewhat.
Scores from a few days swing a lot and mean little; read them with the day count shown.